Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.004979 2.093725 2.187135 2.293303 2.411287 2.539176 2.689391
2025-04-13 1.850616 1.970294 2.101881 2.259016 2.443987 2.658126 2.930083
2025-04-20 1.779614 1.921784 2.083296 2.283788 2.531292 2.834878 3.250088
2025-04-27 1.742302 1.904214 2.093406 2.336529 2.650297 3.057795 3.660922
2025-05-04 1.688459 1.861069 2.066867 2.338170 2.700429 3.193062 3.973738
2025-05-11 1.643177 1.824165 2.043696 2.339636 2.747115 3.325774 4.307937
2025-05-18 1.584187 1.766632 1.990365 2.296361 2.726359 3.355441 4.477814
2025-05-25 1.546311 1.733133 1.965077 2.287600 2.751752 3.455618 4.793735
2025-06-01 1.510661 1.700508 1.938723 2.274793 2.768839 3.543244 5.109798
2025-06-08 1.477034 1.668856 1.911775 2.258864 2.778916 3.619347 5.425808
2025-06-15 1.459354 1.656725 1.909642 2.277042 2.841634 3.793134 6.029754
2025-06-22 1.418160 1.612553 1.862656 2.228043 2.794535 3.763732 6.120901
2025-06-29 1.379289 1.571223 1.819297 2.184093 2.755486 3.750514 6.272894
2025-07-06 1.348735 1.540001 1.788664 2.157411 2.742742 3.786257 6.588430
2025-07-13 1.337519 1.533786 1.791744 2.180365 2.813182 3.994952 7.587496
2025-07-20 1.335243 1.539177 1.810792 2.228084 2.930034 4.324994 9.468591
2025-07-27 1.318200 1.524045 1.800296 2.229573 2.965797 4.486750 10.947913
2025-08-03 1.302111 1.509653 1.790190 2.230897 3.001091 4.655709 12.952253
2025-08-10 1.274532 1.478866 1.755641 2.191814 2.958314 4.624493 13.457434
2025-08-17 1.257666 1.462327 1.741037 2.183892 2.973527 4.745010 15.837876
2025-08-24 1.240543 1.444987 1.724690 2.172304 2.980673 4.846550 18.817600
2025-08-31 1.223394 1.427192 1.707123 2.157881 2.981082 4.930438 22.658347
2025-09-07 1.215912 1.422533 1.708473 2.174339 3.043651 5.209999 40.081991